Multiple Myeloma Risk Factor Exposures

We will follow the same strategy for risk factor exposures as in the Multiple Myeloma Phase 1 concept model, except that we are removing the race exposure, and changing the age cutoff.

Upon diagnosis with multiple myeloma, simulants should be assigned values for each of the following characteristics, with the probability shown in the tables below, depending on location. In addition, a dichotomous risk exposure value of <70 or 70+ should be assigned to each simulant based on the simulant’s age at the time they are initialized into or transition into the newly diagnosed MM state.

United States

Risk Exposure Distributions Simulant Initialization in the US

Risk factor	Exposed group	Unexposed group	Proportion exposed
Cytogenetic risk at diagnosis	High cytogenetic risk	Standard cytogenetic risk	0.34
Renal insufficiency at diagnosis	Renal insufficiency	No renal insufficiency	0.40

The probability of high cytogenetic risk (34%) was obtained from [Rice-et-al-2020], assuming that unknown/undocumented status was missing at random. This value was used instead of the value reported in [Braunlin-et-al-2021] because it was substantially higher than values reported in other data source, as discussed in correspondence with the client.

The probability of renal impairment (40%) was obtained from [Derman-et-al-2020]. This value was chosen instead of the value reported in [Braunlin-et-al-2021], as it was consistent with values from several other sources, as discussed in correspondence with the client.

Given the lack of effect sizes available for renal insufficiency and cytogenetic risk where the effects are adjusted for only treatment and each other, we have made them uncorrelated in our simulation and use unadjusted effect sizes, as described in the MM risk effects documentation.

China

Risk Exposure Distributions Simulant Initialization in China

Risk factor	Exposed group	Unexposed group	Proportion exposed
Cytogenetic risk at diagnosis	High cytogenetic risk	Standard cytogenetic risk	0.45
Renal insufficiency at diagnosis	Renal insufficiency	No renal insufficiency	0.50

These probabilities were informed by expert assumptions. As in the US, they are uncorrelated with each other.